Trade War Uncertainty Is Hitting California Almond Farmers Hard

California’s almond farmers have long been proud supporters of President Donald Trump. But now, many of them are feeling the squeeze from ongoing trade tensions and tariff battles that are threatening their livelihoods and the future of one of the state’s most valuable agricultural industries.

What’s Happening with Trade and Tariffs?

It all started back in 2018, when President Trump launched a major trade war, slapping tariffs on goods from China and many other countries. The goal was to protect American businesses, but in reality, it’s been American farmers who’ve ended up caught in the crossfire. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries have made it harder for U.S. farmers to sell their products overseas, a lifeline for many in the agriculture sector.

Recently, Trump eased some of these “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries, but China’s tariffs remain crushingly high. They’ve hiked their tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, and Trump confirmed that tariffs on Chinese products have soared to 145%. Meanwhile, a 90-day pause on other tariffs has left farmers uncertain and anxious about what’s coming next.

California Almond Growers Are Especially Hard Hit

California is a giant in the agricultural export world, and almonds are at the top of the list. In 2022 alone, California exported nearly $4.7 billion worth of almonds, meeting about 85% of global demand. The state also produces a good deal of pistachios and walnuts.

But since the trade war kicked off, the outlook has dimmed. China used to be a major buyer of California almonds, but tariffs caused exports there to plunge. Colin Carter, an expert from UC Davis, says that California’s almond market share in China hit a two-decade low and hasn’t bounced back since.

“We’re basically cutting ourselves off from the global markets,” Carter says. “And California agriculture depends on those markets a lot. The retaliation is really starting to hit home.”

Farmers Across the Country Are Feeling the Pain

While California almonds grab headlines, the Midwest is grappling with its troubles. States like Iowa, Illinois, and Kansas rely heavily on soybeans, America’s biggest agricultural export. But soybeans have also taken a beating. Last year, soybean exports dropped to about $24.5 billion from a high of nearly $34 billion.

This hits at one of Trump’s most loyal voter groups. Farmers in the most agriculture-dependent counties voted overwhelmingly for Trump again in 2024, with support even slightly higher than in 2020. Still, the pain of tariffs is making some farmers rethink things. A recent poll found that more than half of farmers now don’t back tariffs as a tool for negotiation.

Politics, Promises, and Bailouts

Trump’s administration is hoping the strong support farmers have on Capitol Hill will help secure another taxpayer-funded bailout. This would be similar to the $30 billion aid package given during Trump’s first term to make up for lost export sales.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has promised that farmers will be “protected” and said the administration is preparing a potential bailout plan, though hopefully it won’t be needed. But there’s some doubt about whether Congress will approve it, especially with ongoing worries about the economy.

Agriculture groups and industry insiders have been quietly pushing for aid for some time. However, many farmers, especially almond growers in California, felt they didn’t get a fair shake during the last bailout. Much of the money went to soybean farmers in the Midwest, leaving California’s nut growers feeling left out.

Senator Adam Schiff of California has heard this frustration firsthand. He told NBC News that many farmers “still haven’t recovered market share from the tariffs during the first Trump administration.”

So, Why Do Farmers Still Support Trump?

It might seem surprising that farmers would continue backing a president whose policies have hurt their bottom line. But the answer lies partly in water policy, a crucial issue in California farming. Trump promised more water for farms downstream, and he largely delivered, even if it meant clashing with state Democrats and environmentalists.

Reliable water supply is a lifeline for farmers, especially those growing thirsty crops like almonds. So even though trade wars are shrinking their export markets, Trump’s water policies keep many farmers hopeful and loyal.

What’s Next for California Almonds and Farmers Nationwide?

The future feels uncertain. Tariff disputes and trade tensions aren’t going away anytime soon, and California’s almond growers, along with farmers across the country, are stuck navigating a complicated and unpredictable landscape.

With export markets shrinking and domestic challenges piling up, the question remains: Can California’s agricultural industry bounce back? Will new trade policies, bailouts, or changes in the global economy help restore stability? For now, almond growers and farmers everywhere face the hard reality of a trade war that keeps punishing the very people who have supported it, a tough reminder of how interconnected and fragile global trade is.