California Almond Market Update: August 2025

As global markets shift, the almond industry is showing resilience, but challenges remain. The latest July 2025 Position Report from the Almond Board of California offers both positive and cautionary insights. With shipments up nearly 10% year-over-year and export demand climbing, the industry is seeing some much-needed growth. 

But with the 2025 crop now in the field, there are significant questions around yields, pricing, and the potential impact of early harvest results. Here’s a closer look at the almond market for August 2025.

Strong Export Growth and Domestic Demand

California shipped 197.1 million lbs. of almonds in July, an impressive 9.9% increase from the 179.4 million lbs. shipped in July 2024. However, on a year-to-date basis, shipments are down 1.7%. July’s uptick is significant, marking the first month of shipment growth since December.

Regional Demand Breakdown:

• U.S.: –5.6% (–7.8% YTD)
• Exports:+16.4% (+0.6% YTD)
  • Western Europe: +15% (+1% YTD)
  • India: +134% (+6% YTD)
  • Middle East / Africa: –31% (–3% YTD)
  • China / Hong Kong / Vietnam: –66% (–27% YTD)
  • Japan: +11% (+5% YTD)
  • South Korea: –12% (+3% YTD)
  • Central / Eastern Europe: +11% (Flat YTD)
  • Canada: +6% (Flat YTD)
  • Latin America / Caribbean: +27% (+31% YTD)

While China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam have experienced notable declines. Western Europe and Latin America also posted solid gains, contributing to the overall strong export performance.

Sales & Shipments Review: A Strong Finish to 2024

Sales for the 2024 crop saw a remarkable boost in July, totaling 100.3 million lbs., a 43% increase over the 69.9 million lbs. sold in July 2024. This surge in sales helped lift shipments by almost 10%.

Key figures:

• Committed (unshipped): 215 million lbs., a 9.3% decrease from last year.
• Sold + Shipped: 2.86 billion lbs. vs. 2.93 billion lbs. last year, representing a 2.3% decrease.
• Industry sold position: 90.5% of total supply, down slightly from 91.6% last year.

Despite the slight drop in total sold volume, the strong July sales suggest a healthy finish to the 2024 crop year, setting up a strong foundation for the 2025 season.

2025 Crop: Early Yield Reports and Potential Challenges

The 2025 almond harvest kicked off early, with limited shaking already underway in late July. While this early data is typically not conclusive, some concerning trends are already emerging. Early reports indicate lower recovery rates, with higher hull percentages than last season, which could mean reduced yields.

Early Observations:

• Far South & Far North: Early yields are largely flat, with some minor fluctuations.
• Fresno, Madera, Merced Counties (West Side): Nonpareil yields are down by as much as 20% to 50% in certain areas.
• Shasta Fields: Early returns are significantly lower compared to previous years.
• Independence: This variety is showing slightly better recovery than Nonpareil and Shasta, but still below expectations.

These early setbacks, possibly linked to reduced inputs and the impact of the 2024 heatwave, have some analysts concerned. While yields often improve as harvest progresses, these early trends are crucial for setting the pricing tone for the 2025 crop year.

Pricing Trends and Market Outlook

The almond industry is entering the 2025/26 season with a tight carry-out of approximately 515 million lbs., nearly identical to last year’s carry-in. If sentiment were more bullish, this carry-out could feel even tighter, but recent strong seller participation has kept the market balanced.

Key Pricing Insights

• Pricing drop: Prices fell by approximately $0.50/lb following the NASS Objective Estimate.
• Price bounce: After hitting a low, prices have bounced back by about $0.25/lb, but remain below breakeven for many growers.
• Kernel demand: Kernel interest remains strong, especially as inshell buying cools after large shipments to India.

Overall, while there is some optimism around strong sales and shipments, pricing pressures remain a key concern, particularly as growers face unfavorable yields in key regions.

Market Dynamics to Watch

1. Yield progression: Will yields improve as harvest continues, or will we see more widespread issues?
2. Regional variations: Are the lower yields in the West Side of the Central Valley offset by better outcomes in other regions?
3. Tariff impacts: How will potential tariff shifts affect demand in key markets like Europe and India?
4. Price adjustments: How will pricing stabilize as more yield data comes in? Will growers find ways to adjust?
5. Supply chain shifts: With inshell demand slowing, how will that affect logistics and kernel demand in the coming months?

In Conclusion

The almond market is at a critical juncture. While July shipments showed positive momentum, early yield reports for the 2025 crop are raising some flags. As the harvest progresses, industry participants will be watching closely for signs of improvement or further weakness. With prices still below breakeven for many growers, the coming weeks will be pivotal in determining the market’s direction.

What do you think?

As the season unfolds, we want to hear from you. How are these trends impacting your operations? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and stay tuned for more updates as we track the 2025 almond crop.