Crop Tour Projects Record Corn Yields: USDA Ratings Mixed

Ohio

Tour Results

Scouts opened the tour in Ohio and came away with a bullish. The projected state yield landed at 185.69 bpa, topping both the 2024 tour average of 183.29 bpa and the three-year crop tour average of 180.47 bpa. Tour analysts said it’s the highest Ohio projection in records going back to 2003. Even so, cracked soils in some fields signaled dryness, and tour leaders noted the crop will need timely late-August rains.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Ohio’s corn is generally on pace or ahead of the five-year average, with the exception of denting, which is lagging. 1% of the crop has reached maturity. On quality, Ohio sits near the bottom among major producers: 10% excellent, 45% good, 31% fair, 13% poor, 1% very poor.

South Dakota

Tour Results

Day one also covered South Dakota, where scouts sketched a strong rebound. The tour pegged yield at 174.18 bpa, well above 156.51 bpa in 2024 and the three-year tour average of 144.13 bpa, the state’s best tour estimate since 2020 (179.24 bpa). Crews encountered muddy fields in spots, a sign of recent moisture expected to help corn (and soybeans) into the home stretch.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Corn development is running ahead of schedule in every stage except maturity, which is in line with the five-year norm; 0% has matured. Ratings are comfortably above national averages, with 77% of acres marked good/excellent: 27% excellent, 50% good, 16% fair, 5% poor, 2% very poor.

Nebraska

Tour Results

Scouts crossed Nebraska on day two and penciled in the state’s strongest tour figure since 2021: 179.50 bpa, up from a 2024 tour average of 173.25 bpa. The estimate reinforces a steady season even as fields juggle localized stress.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Progress trails the five-year average across all stages, and none of the crops have hit maturity (0%). Condition ratings mirror South Dakota’s at 77% good/excellent: 27% excellent, 50% good, 19% fair, 3% poor, 1% very poor.

Indiana

Tour Results

Also on day two, Indiana impressed. Scouts set a record tour projection for the state at 193.82 bpa, up from 187.54 bpa a year ago. The estimate underscores a broadly strong crop with room to finish.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Silking and dough stages are running a touch behind average, while denting is slightly ahead. Maturity remains at 0%, which aligns with typical timing. Conditions sit below the national good/excellent share: 63% good/excellent overall, broken out as 11% excellent, 52% good, 26% fair, 8% poor, 3% very poor.

Illinois

Tour Results

The tour’s third day brought scouts to Illinois, where the yield call of 199.57 bpa, though down from 204.14 bpa in 2024, still ranks as the second-highest on record for the tour. That’s a stout number given variable weather and spotty disease reports.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Most stages are a hair ahead of average, while maturity is on par at 0%. Conditions trail the national picture: 63% good/excellent (17% excellent, 46% good, 26% fair, 7% poor, 4% very poor).

Iowa

Tour Results

In the nation’s top corn state, the tour posted its highest Iowa projection in 22 years of data: 198.43 bpa, above the 2024 tour average of 192.79 bpa. Western Iowa scouts, however, flagged widespread southern rust in some fields, bad enough that sleeves came away dusted orange from spores. It’s too early to quantify yield impact with four to five critical weeks still ahead.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Development is slightly behind average, and maturity stands at 0%. Even with disease showing up, Iowa boasts the strongest ratings among major states: 86% good/excellent overall (30% excellent, 56% good, 11% fair, 2% poor, 1% very poor).

Read More: Illinois Farmer Sees Resilient Crops Despite Dryness

Minnesota

Tour Results

The tour finished in Minnesota with a headline number: 202.86 bpa, soaring from 164.90 bpa in 2024 and marking the best Minnesota estimate in the tour’s 22-year dataset. Scouts credited ample moisture and generally uniform stands, while noting southern rust was present in some fields.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Progress is meeting or trailing normal, and 0% has reached maturity. Ratings are a notch above the national average, with 23% excellent, 51% good, 19% fair, 5% poor, and 2% very poor.

Drought Monitor (Aug. 19, 2025)

Late-summer heat and uneven rainfall expanded dryness across parts of the High Plains and segments of the Midwest. While many tour stops benefited from recent showers, others showed cracking soils and stressed leaf canopies, reminders that August moisture will still determine how much of these record projections convert into harvested bushels.

Bottom Line

The 2025 crop tour paints a remarkably optimistic yield canvas, records or near-records in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and strong showings in Ohio, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Illinois.

USDA’s condition ratings, however, remain a patchwork: several states outpace the national good/excellent share, while others lag. With maturity yet to start in these states and diseases like southern rust flaring, the next month will be decisive in translating potential into production.